Cost Loss PTA Trend Worrying

The performance of the upstream and downstream markets is poor, and the fundamentals are more serious in the later stage.

After this round of oscillation finishing, PTA will regain its downtrend.

Beginning in March, PTA launched a larger decline. After reaching a low of 6980, it stabilized and began to enter the rebound market.

The volatility of PTA in this round of rebound has gradually weakened, and around the 7500 consolidation, the two sides will not compromise.

The author believes that PTA is more likely to run downwards through this round of oscillation. Under the background of uncertainty of macroeconomic situation and the release of large-scale production capacity in the late stage, although PTA has cost support, it is still unable to improve its weak fundamentals.

Cost loss, price supported

From the weekly chart, crude oil futures closed in a shadow line with a long shadow this week. It is still on the rise track, and the late growth is limited by its demand. However, crude oil prices are hard to fall due to the reduction of Beihai oilfield and the blockade of Iran's Strait of Hormuz.

In addition, upstream raw material prices are rising.

Production costs, naphtha prices continue to be strong, but the price of PTA has been in a weak oscillation pattern, spot trading losses in 300 yuan / ton, the state of continuous loss restricts the PTA down space.

At present, large petrochemical equipment is being overhauled and overhauled, but the price rise of PTA has not been a slightest rise, and the market is still relatively weak.

As of 24 days, the current PTA price differential continued to hang upside down, and spot prices were relatively strong, or would drive the futures prices to a high level in the short term.

Terminal consumption is down, and PTA demand is insufficient.

Due to the uncertainty of the global economic outlook, demand for clothing and textile industry has shrunk dramatically.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China, the export volume of textiles and garments in China in July was 23 billion 889 million US dollars, a decrease of 8.1% compared with the same period last year, of which exports of textiles, yarns, fabrics and products were 8 billion 2 million US dollars, down 8.05% compared with the same period last year. The export of garments and accessories reached US $15 billion 887 million, down 8.13% from the same period last year.

From 1 to July, China's clothing exports were 82 billion 930 million US dollars, down 0.2%, and textile exports 54 billion 470 million US dollars, down 0.2%.

This shows that the consumption of the terminal market is stagnant, which reduces the demand for upstream products.

From the start up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, the current operating rate is 69%, along with the later stage.

The coming of the peak season will improve, but the demand is still not up to the previous years.

Capacity release, the trend is worrying.

At the beginning of the year, high production capacity is expected to be launched in China. Although the new PTA production capacity in China is expected to be delayed gradually, the market has recently heard the news that Hengli Dalian's 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA new plant has started operation, and it is expected to produce products in early September. 750 thousand tons of Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1 million 500 thousand ton plant will start production; another 700 thousand tons of Far East petrochemical plant has also been put into operation, and the 4 million 400 thousand tons of new capacity planned for commissioning in September and September will be concentrated in about 3000000 tons recently.

The huge capacity release has increased the burden on the market, which is also an important reason for the stagnation of PTA.

At present, in the context of the sharp rise in crude oil prices and PTA, there is no obvious increase in the background. The PTA warehouse receipts of Zheng Shang company are decreasing day by day, and remain at a low position.

With the release of later capacity, the advantage of tight supply will no longer exist, and PTA's future trend is worrying.

Later trend and operation suggestion

From the technical analysis, the main contract 1301 of PTA shows a positive triangle oscillating finishing pattern, and all the moving average lines are intricate together. The MACD index is circling around the zero axis, and the amplitude gradually shrinks. In the oscillation market, the reliability of the technical analysis is low.

From the position, as of the 30 day, the top 20 members of the Zhengshang business positions in the rankings, long positions increased by 10621 to 216088 hands, short positions increased 16560 to 200822 hands, the two sides holding positions regardless of the upper and lower levels, there is a big difference in the latter trend.

In short, PTA's performance in the upstream and downstream markets is poor, and the fundamentals are more serious in the latter part.

After this round of oscillation finishing, PTA will regain its downtrend.