China Cotton Institute: Cotton Outlook Report In Late 2011

China Cotton Association and the national cotton industry technology system cotton Harvest, released late this year cotton outlook report for decision-making reference.

First,.1-7 cotton economic situation

1, cotton production main characteristics. First, the cotton price is good stimulation, cotton planting. The measure of area Showing a recovery growth. Two, cotton is growing well. The "dry and hot" characteristics of the mid and early term are favorable for cotton growth. Although the drought dominated disaster is heavy, the area of harvest is very small. China's cotton growth index (CCGI) was 121 in 4-8 months, indicating that the growth rate was better than 20% over the same period last year, which is better than that of the whole year. 10%. Three, this year is a harvest year. By August 23rd, the growth will be optimistic and the harvest will continue to grow. If the weather is normal in the late period, there will be no continuous waterlogging and flood disaster. The total output is expected to be high and good quality.

2, the cash input increased in the first half of the year, and the cost of employing workers rose continuously for 9 years. Monitoring results, cotton production cash input in the first half of 588.3 yuan / mu, an increase of 70.1 yuan / mu, an increase of 13.5%. The material cost increased by 52.1 yuan per mu, accounting for 74.3% of the increase, and the labor cost increased by 18.1 yuan / mu, an increase of 23.5%. It is estimated that the annual cost will increase by at least 202.1 yuan per mu, reaching 1444.7 yuan per mu, or up 14%.

3, the output of cotton yarn and the quantity of textile exports have declined. 1-7 months Cotton yarn Output of 16 million 15 thousand tons, an increase of 6.1% over the same period, an increase of 9.2 percentage points. It shows that there is a turning point in China's cotton yarn production capacity, but the cotton consumption base is very large and the shortage of cotton will not change. In the 1-7 months, the export of textiles and garments was US $137 billion 720 million, an increase of 25.5% over the same period. Among them, the price rose by 21.49% in 1-6 months, and the number increased by only 3.88%, down 12.5 percentage points. Among them, 9 billion 500 million knitted garments were exported, accounting for 70.2% of the total garment exports, with an increase of only 3.68%. Domestic demand continued to maintain a strong trend, 1-6 months above the clothing retail sales increased by 23.5% over the same period, if the price increases, some of the growth is limited.

4, import reduction. In 1-7 months, 1 million 480 thousand tons of raw cotton were imported, down 13.4% from the same period last year.

5, cotton price "roller coaster", entered the August decline slowed down to stabilize, slightly see signs of recovery. In the first half of this year, domestic and foreign cotton prices rose sharply year by year, and the ratio fell sharply. China's cotton price index (CC Index) dropped from 27915 yuan /t in January to 22181 yuan /t in July, a decrease of 20.5%, a 27.8% decline from March's highest price of 30733 yuan /t. The A index dropped from 182.66 cents / pound in January to 122.51 cents / pound in July, a 32.9% decline, and a 46.6% drop from the highest price of 229.6 cents / pound in March.

In August, the price fell slowly and stabilized, and the trend of recent recovery was rising. In August, the CC Index decreased by 12.5% compared with July, and the A index dropped by 7.4%. In the first three weeks of August, the rate of decline was one digit, and fourth weeks saw a slight recovery.

Two, new cotton price outlook

The analysis points out that the three elements of temporary storage, cost and inflation are new cotton. Price The trend and trend are the most influential.

(1) market support will have a supporting effect on the market. In March, the temporary storage and purchase price was 19800 yuan /t, deducting 1000 yuan /t, processing and transportation cost was 18800 yuan /t, and 328 grade seed cotton price was 8.96 yuan / kg, which was a bottom purchase price. With the support of the temporary purchase and storage price, the price of new cotton has stabilized steadily.

(two) under the impetus of cost and inflation, the price of new cotton will fluctuate upward and rebound. According to the monitoring results, in the first half of the year, material costs increased by 52.10 yuan per mu, and the cost of lint increased by 612.9 yuan /t to digest. It is estimated that the annual labor cost will rise by 150 yuan per mu, and the lint cost will be increased by 1764.7 yuan /t. The total cost of material and labor costs will push up the cost by 2377.6 yuan /t, that is, the increase of 12.6% yuan on the basis of temporary storage and purchase price of 18800 yuan /t is only 2377.6 yuan /t in order to digest the pressure of rising cost. This is in line with the January forecast that the reasonable expected price of new cotton will be between 2.1 and 22 thousand yuan /t. If the increase in land rent and the price of self employed work is reasonable, the reasonable price will be 2.4 to 26 thousand yuan /t.

Preventing inflation and stabilizing prices is the primary task of this year's macroeconomic regulation and control. CPI's annual control target is 4% to 5%, 5.4% in the first half and 6.5% in July, a new high of nearly 3 years. The economic community has recently held that there are three factors to judge inflationary inflection points: first, liquidity is controllable but lagging behind, which may become the thrust of downward inflation in the 3~4 quarter. The two is when commodity prices will go down, and international import is not controllable. Three, the continued rise in labor costs will become a persistent drag on inflation. There is no sign of any turning point at that time (Ba Shu song, 2011-8-12).

(three) several factors affecting the price of new cotton

1, from the perspective of price performance, grain prices in grain and cotton producing areas are rising. The lowest price of grain has been raised year by year. The price of wheat farmers in the Yellow River is 1.98 to 2 yuan / kg this year, and 2.20 to 2.50 yuan per kilogram of high quality gluten wheat. Up to now, there has been no minimum protection price of 1.90 yuan / kg.

2, from the perspective of futures, the sharp decline in 1-7 months, stabilized in August to stabilize, the recent upward trend. Zhengzhou CF109 dropped from 32645 yuan /t in January to 20955 yuan /t in July, a decrease of 35.8%. Internationally, the futures price of New York Intercontinental Exchange fell from 152.53 cents in October to 106.71 cents / pound in July, a 30.3% decline in April. In August, due to the decline in the US credit rating, the price of domestic and foreign futures markets declined during the second week of this month, and the intercontinental market in New York dropped by 5.67% in October. The CF109 in Zhengzhou decreased by 1.67%, and the third week trend stabilized slightly. If the US launches the third round of quantitative easing policy, the price will go up.

3. From cotton spinning, the digestion time of high priced cotton is prolonged. The first is to recall the high value cotton in 2003 digested in half a year. In 2004, the low price imported cotton produced obvious "dilution effect", and the reason for this year is not that the international cotton price is higher than domestic and consumption power. Two, the temporary purchase and storage price has greatly depressed the market, forcing the "high price cotton" hard landing in 2010, and the difficulty of financing enterprises. In order to maintain the backbone workers, they have to take "four stops and six stops". Due to underemployment and increased consumption in the summer, 2 million 446 thousand tons of cotton production in July were questioned by many, while the digestion of high priced cotton took a long time.

4, from the point of view of exports, the uncertainty of international consumption is increasing. "The world economy is still very fragile, the recovery is very uneven" (Lagarde, IMF president, 2011-7-6); the global economy is facing a "new and more dangerous" stage (Zoelick, World Bank President, 2011-8-13); in early August, the US and European debt crisis and the credit rating of the United States were downgraded, and the stock market was volatile. In the second week, the global stock market shrank by 4 trillion US dollars. The United States, the European Union, Japan and other developed economies have reduced GDP, coupled with political turmoil in some countries, slowing global economic growth and weakening the consumer market. The US has pushed the third round of quantitative easing policy to drive up prices.

5, from the perspective of resources, the world's cotton production has increased. In July, ICAC predicted that the area of cotton planting increased by 8%, and the total output increased by 10.7% to 27 million 420 thousand T.

Three, take precautions against the need to increase production, and actively guard against the difficulty of selling cotton will be this year. cotton Top priority

In view of the bumper harvest of cotton, we must guard against the difficulty of selling cotton as the top priority of this year's cotton industry.

In view of the strong support of temporary storage and purchase for the market, the implementation details are expected to be issued as soon as possible.