New Cotton Open Scale Price Set A New Record

 

In order to understand the listing time and opening price of new cotton in Xinjiang, the reporter of China Cotton network conducted investigation on several local contact points. After many inquiries, some enterprises said that the opening time of weighing this year was due to the low-temperature replanting in the early stage of new cotton, the cotton boll opening period may be extended, and the market is expected to rush to harvest. The higher the wait-and-see mood of enterprises and farmers, the opening time of weighing this year has been delayed, but the overall difference is not much compared with last year. In terms of yield, according to the data of national cotton market monitoring system, in 2021, the total output of new cotton in China was 5.578 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%. Among them, the output of Xinjiang was 5.017 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. It is also understood that this year, Xinjiang's ginning capacity continues to increase. Since 2018, more than 130 new production lines have been added. For seed cotton, raw material supply is reduced, enterprise demand is increased, and the price of new cotton is greatly increased. The phenomenon that there are more monks and less employees may be staged again, and it has gradually become a consensus in the market that new cotton should be seized.

 

A cotton farmer in Xinjiang said that due to adverse weather such as early wind disaster and low temperature in Xinjiang this year, most cotton fields were replayed, and the local cotton planting cost was further increased. This year, the cost of land leasing in Xinjiang is 1000-1400 yuan / mu, including 1100-1150 yuan / mu in Jinghe county and 1400 yuan / mu in Bole, Xinjiang. Compared with last year, the average land rental cost is 300-400 yuan / mu, and the fertilizer price is rising. The current urea price is 120 yuan / bag, more than double that of last year. The increase of land lease cost promoted the high price of seed cotton. A person in charge of an enterprise in Shandong said that in the past years, Xinjiang's new cotton was collected in a rush, and the price was about to be higher. This year, due to the bad weather in the early stage, the new cotton production was lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, the downstream consumption was better. It is estimated that the opening scale price of Xinjiang machine picked cotton is more than 7.5 yuan / kg, and the lint cost is about 17000 yuan / ton, and the hand picking is higher. Some enterprises said that this year's new cotton resources are small, so we must seize them. If we don't grab resources, we will lose money if we don't get seed cotton.

 

At present, cotton growth in Xinjiang is generally good, and will enter the boll opening period. With the recent rise in the price of cotton and cotton yarn, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts accelerated to decline. As of August 18, there were 10945 registered warehouse receipts of Zheng cotton, 103 of which were lower than those of August 16 and converted to 438000 tons. Downstream of the high price of raw materials began to appear a certain wait-and-see mentality. A person in charge of a textile enterprise in Shandong said that due to the rapid rise in cotton prices recently, textile enterprises in Shandong and surrounding areas are increasingly feeling the pressure from raw materials. In addition, with the stable launch of nearly 10000 tons of reserved cotton every day and all transactions, they have to slow down the pace of procurement and replenishment, resulting in the number of spot transactions continuing to decline.

 

At the same time, with the arrival of "gold nine silver ten", textile enterprises will be more popular. Shandong, Henan, Anhui and other textile enterprises responsible person said that affected by foreign orders to domestic and domestic consumption gradually improved and other factors, this year's business is better, the profits are higher than the same period last year. At the same time, with the coming of the peak season, most enterprises expressed confidence in the future market.

 

In addition, from the perspective of supply side, the current rotation of reserved cotton and the negative effects of quota have been exhausted. Recently, zhengmian has reached a new high of 18265 yuan / ton, and the downstream consumption has continued to be better. The market is optimistic and confident. Internationally, in August this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the uada year-on-year table, reducing global cotton production and final inventory in 2021 / 22, which has a positive impact on cotton prices. To sum up, it seems that the high price of new cotton in Kaiping this year seems to have become a consensus in the market. If there is a "rush to collect" drama in the later stage of opening scale, the cotton price may be higher and higher. However, whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the future, as well as the trend of the global epidemic situation and other adverse factors are still the key to market prevention and control.