63, Down 68% Year On Year! In The First Half Of The Year, The Opening Number Of Shopping Centers Across The Country Hit A New Low

Epidemic situation, closure, rent free, restart, live broadcast with goods, consumption vouchers, stall economy, cinema resumption... In the first half of 2020, the commercial real estate industry is like a fantasy movie, which gathers all the elements of adventure, confrontation, restart, life first, positive justice value and so on.

When the whole city presses the "pause button", the opening time nodes of the commercial entities to be listed are also forced to be postponed, and the new business increment has also reached a new low.

According to media statistics, in the first half of 2020, the number of newly opened commercial projects nationwide is only 63 (excluding professional markets, hotels and office buildings, and the commercial building area is ≥ 20000 square meters). The newly increased GFA commercial building area is 4418200 square meters, and the average single building area is 70100 square meters. Calculated by 55% of the house acquisition rate, the newly added GLA commercial lease area is 2.43 million square meters, and the average single lease area is 38600 square meters.

　　 A year-on-year slump of 68%, a new low in recent five years

Relatively speaking, the first half of the year was a period of cautious supply of shopping centers throughout the year. This year, due to special circumstances, many projects chose to postpone the opening, resulting in a new low in the number of opening in the first half of this year. According to the statistics of Lianshang Retail Research Center, the overall opening volume in the first half of 2020 was 63, with a year-on-year decline of 68%.

From the perspective of the number of opening and year-on-year changes in the first half of the last five years, the number of opening increased year by year from 2016 to 2018, and reached a peak of 228 in 2018. Although there was a decline in the number of opening in 2019, it was also the second highest year in the last five years.

From the perspective of year-on-year increase and decrease, 2018 reached the peak in the past five years, with a year-on-year surge of more than 37%; In 2016 and 2017, the average annual growth rate was 13% and 3% respectively, and it began to fall back to 15% in 2019.

Apart from the factors affecting the epidemic in 2020, in fact, the supply of commercial real estate across the country is still rising. Although there are many similar "saturated" voices in the industry, and the cautious attitude is slightly exposed, developers are still optimistic about the acceptability of the market.

　　 East China leads the Southwest and surpasses South China

East China, with Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces with large GDP and Shanghai, the national economic center, is still the regional hegemony, accounting for nearly 40% of the total number of business opening, accounting for almost half of the country, including 8 in Jiangsu, 7 in Zhejiang, 5 in Jiangxi, 2 in Shanghai, and 1 in Fujian and Anhui respectively.

Compared with South China, which has Guangdong, the other province with the largest GDP in China, the economic environment in the southwest region is relatively poor, but the performance in the first half of this year is extremely active, ranking second with the total number of 11 opening, which has been the third consecutive year that its opening volume in the first half exceeded that of South China.

The strength of the southwest market is attributed to Chengdu and Chongqing, which respectively ranked among the top 11 cities in the number of opening in the first half of this year. At the same time, the performance of other cities is commendable. Guiyang and Zunyi in Guizhou, Neijiang, Zigong, Ziyang and other cities in Sichuan all have projects opened.

Benefiting from the consumption vitality of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, many famous real estate enterprises have concentrated supply. The local real estate enterprises such as Poly, Vanke and Evergrande have "rich water does not flow into the fields of outsiders". In addition, Hong Kong enterprises such as Sun Hung Kai, Jiulongcang and New World have "access to water, buildings and platforms, and the first month". The business industry in South China has the advantage of "favorable weather, favorable location and harmonious people". Although the first half of this year is still lagging behind the southwest, it still occupies the third place with 10 openings.

Elsewhere, Central China, North China and Northwest China performed normally, while Northeast China remained at the bottom.

　　 First tier and second tier cities are active, third tier and fourth tier cities have potential

First tier cities and developed second tier cities have fast economic development, good business atmosphere, large population and strong consumption power. Although the cost of land acquisition is high, high consumption still makes many developers willing to invest at a high price, so these cities tend to have high commercial activity.

According to the statistics of the city activity in the first half of this year, the threshold for the top 11 cities is 2 opening numbers. Except Shantou and Hengyang, the other 9 cities are all first tier and second tier cities. This shows that cities with developed economy, commerce and ideal traffic environment are still the main battlefields for business competition.

On the other hand, according to the latest urban classification indicators in 2020, in terms of the total number of opening, the total number of third and fourth tier cities is no less than that of first tier and new first tier cities, such as Neijiang, Zigong and Ziyang in Sichuan, Xinyang, Zhoukou and Xinxiang in Henan, Hengyang in Hunan, and Laibin in Guangxi.

This shows that the third and fourth tier cities with larger gaps and opportunities in shopping centers have great development potential, which is also one of the important trends in the development of shopping centers.

　　 Mainly 50000~100000 m3

Among the newly opened commercial projects, the number of projects with a scale of 50000 to 100000 cubic meters (including 50000 cubic meters, excluding 100000 cubic meters) is the largest, accounting for 48%; 20000 to 50000 m3 (including 20000 m3, excluding 50000 m3) accounts for about 30%; 100000 to 150000 m3 (including 100000 m3, excluding 150000 m3) accounting for about 17%; More than 150000 m3 (including 150000 m3) accounts for about 5%.

Compared with the same period of last year, the number of opening projects with the scale of 50000 to 100000 cubic meters increased sharply, from 35% to 48%, and the proportion of the other three types of projects decreased to varying degrees.

We believe that a one-stop commercial center with an area of 50000 to 100000 square meters is a common model at present. These projects integrate basic consumer needs such as shopping, eating, drinking and playing, and also introduce experiential formats such as theaters, entertainment clubs, cinemas, animal houses, and there is enough space for event marketing, which is often favored by many developers.

At the same time, the cost of land acquisition is getting higher and higher. In addition to the popularity of community business models, small businesses with a volume of less than 50000 square meters are gradually increasing, especially in the central areas of first tier cities, new first tier cities and provincial capital cities. Land prices are getting higher and higher. However, those small and beautiful community neighborhood shopping centers have the advantage of high stickiness because they are close to the density of community residents, It does not need high marketing expenses, and is widely regarded.

　　 The stock of reconstructed properties has increased

With the development of commercial real estate in some key cities becoming more and more mature, many of the existing assets that were eliminated in the past industry competition are often favored by other developers because of their advantages in core business districts, subways, etc. They return after upgrading or changing their names and operators.

The statistical results show that in the first half of the year, there were 8 commercial projects of stock transformation (including supermarket and department store transformation, renaming and reopening, adjustment and upgrading, etc.), accounting for up to 13%. Compared with the same period in 2019, the proportion (6% of stock transformation projects in 2019) increased. In terms of urban distribution, it is still concentrated in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Wuxi, Haikou, Changzhou, Huzhou and other economically developed cities.

This is mainly because the cities with early urbanization process and the projects in the center of the city are put into operation early. Both hardware and software facilities are different from the current development needs of shopping centers and need to be "upgraded". In addition, the stock transformation projects are generally traditional businesses with small area and single business type. In order to adapt to market competition, they need to be adjusted and upgraded. Therefore, in the first half of this year, many commercial properties, especially those in the economically and commercially developed cities represented by Shanghai, moved towards upgrading.