Crude Profit Recovery Polyester Staple Prices Will Fall Or Fall

According to the price data of business associations, the average price of 1.4D*38mm polyester staple domestic market was 7195 yuan / ton as of January 8th, rising 4.57%, or 314 yuan / ton, down 19.79%, or 1775 yuan / ton. The price of the factory is mainly between 7100-7400 yuan / ton, and the price is more concentrated.

The US crude oil rose sharply due to the tense situation in the US and Iraq. From the supply side, the United States is in the 1-4 month of the year is the rapid growth period of us oil stocks. Although OPEC has cut production, Brazil and other countries have increased production. Demand for global economic recession, China and India, the three major demand countries only China maintained growth. In the short term, supply and demand are in a state of weak equilibrium. Recently, although the list of unrest in the United States and Iran is crude oil, there has been no substantial interruption. However, oil prices quickly dropped as oil prices rose too fast in the past few days and traders were alert to high oil profits.

Yesterday, PTA closed at 4875 (-95), and oil prices dropped slightly. PTA current spot price is 4984 yuan / ton, processing fee is about 450 yuan / ton, at a low level. The Yisheng 650 thousand ton plant in Ningbo stopped in January, and the other 2 million 200 thousand tons of equipment were scheduled to be stopped for half a month in February. The 1 million tons of Chuan Ning petrochemical company stopped in December 29th. It is tentatively scheduled to restart in late January. The Yisheng Dalian 2 million 250 thousand ton plant is expected to restart in mid January. PTA stock accumulation, the current operating rate is 85.34%. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester production and sales overall weakness, production and marketing rate of 57%. PTA enters the class library stage, because the current processing fee is low, the oil price is at a high level, and the drop in oil price is likely to drive the PTA down.

Downstream 32S polyester yarn Shandong area average price of 14360 yuan / ton, down 0.28%, or 40 yuan / ton, basically flat. Compared with the same period, it fell 12.22%, or 2000 yuan / ton. Dachang quotes concentrated in 13800-15000 yuan / ton, and the two division is slightly serious. At the end of the year, quotations of yarn and grey fabric manufacturers rose moderately, while the bearish mentality eased, but the price increase was still difficult. First, enterprises are approaching the new year, most of them are ready to take a vacation to overhaul. Two, even if bullish is divided into thick ones, the actual transaction is more difficult. A large number of enterprises have gradually stopped orders and transactions.

To sum up, business analysts believe that the upstream crude oil is geopolitical because of geopolitical reasons. In the short term, oil prices will fall back to normal. PTA, because of the restart of many manufacturers, the stock is in a state of accumulation, and the price of oil will drive PTA down. Dacron staple fiber is expected to drop slightly in the short term, but this month is still in a stable state for a long time.