Tight Balance Situation Has Been Set PTA Will Show Seasonal Trend.

The supply and demand relationship of China's PTA industry has been surplus from 2014-2016 years to the present, and the supply is tight. Therefore, the improvement of supply and demand relationship is the foundation of the recovery of PTA market in 2019. We estimate that the PTA price in 2019 was high in the two or three quarter, and because the risk of diminished marginal kinetic energy in the second half of the year and the possibility of price declines due to the increase in supply of raw materials, it is expected that the PTA price depression will appear in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the price of PTA will oscillate within 5500-8500 yuan / ton in 2019.

First of all, from the cost point of view, international oil prices in 2019 will still be built on a relatively optimistic basis, but the supply and demand will become more relaxed, and the external risks will increase. This will be a drag on the trend of oil prices throughout the year. The average crude oil price in 2019 still rose year after year, but the increase is expected to be limited. It is initially estimated that the average price of WTI crude oil will be 67-70 dollars in 2019, and the average price of Brent will be 74-77 US dollars. Para xylene or crude oil oscillation operation, but in 2019 a large number of p-xylene new capacity put into operation, the market structure will change significantly, so it is expected that in 2019, the Chinese xylene market will show a top down market as a whole. The trend will show a track of first inhibition and then increase. The price range of CFR para xylene will be concentrated in 1000-1270 US dollars / ton, the price will be high in the first quarter, and the price depression will appear in the third quarter, which is supported by the cost side, the centralized maintenance is over and the new capacity will be substantially increased.

Secondly, from the demand side, it is estimated that the new capacity of polyester will reach 5 million 700 thousand tons in 2019, or the existence of 2 million 200 thousand tons of equipment will be postponed to 2020. According to the production plan, the effective capacity increase will be concentrated in the two or three quarter. That is to say, the marginal increase of PTA consumption will be released in the two or three quarter, and the price of PTA will also get a certain kinetic energy under the support of demand side.

Third, according to the 2018 PTA device maintenance schedule, the domestic supplier maintenance is concentrated in the two or three quarter of 2018. The longest replacement time of PTA catalyst is 12-14 months. Therefore, it is estimated that the future PTA overhaul in 2019 will also be concentrated in the two or three quarter. With the reduction of supply, the market value of PTA will also increase significantly.

Finally, in 2018, although China's economic operation was still in a reasonable range, the downward pressure began to emerge, and faced many risks and challenges in the field of foreign trade. Although Sino US trade disputes had been beset with emotions, they did not have much practical impact on the execution of contracts in 2018. But in 2019, the global economic risk came mainly from the uncertainty of trade issues. The current trade disputes will affect the global economic growth trend. Trade policy has exceeded the financial and economic risks. It has become the biggest threat to the current global economic growth. This will form a risk aversion and a restraining effect on market capital activity and demand.