The "Super Thursday" Of The Bank Of England

The Bank of England will also announce minutes, inflation reports and interest rates decisions on Thursday.

Compared with the Fed, the Bank of England has higher certainty about raising interest rates.

Carney, President of the bank, has repeatedly said since July that the timing of the first rate hike will be clearer at the end of this year and early in the year.

This week's super Thursday is very important.

Once the Bank of England raises interest rates, it will surpass the Fed and become the first major global central bank to withdraw from super loose monetary policy.

Bloomberg quoted Nomura and Credit Suisse analysts as saying.

In the latest statement, it is said that interest rates will be raised as soon as December, which may encourage the Bank of England to raise interest rates.

HSBC: it is expected that the voting percentage will be 7:2; interest rate hike may be next February; the Bank of England may fix short-term inflation expectations, and it is estimated that inflation will exceed 2% in 2017, releasing the Bank of England raising interest rate sooner than the market expected.

There is a divergence of opinion within the Bank of England, so it seems unlikely that a consensus will be reached, especially when heavy data, the US non farm employment report, will be released on Friday.

The market may react immediately to the members' voting.

Royal Bank of Canada: it is expected that the voting percentage will be 8:1; interest rate increases will be May next year; the Bank of England may predict that inflation will exceed 2% in third years. Otherwise, the Bank of England will release a signal that there is no need to raise interest rates at least in early 2017.

Credit Suisse: Chance Kristin Forbes, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy, will vote for higher interest rates.

The Bank of England may not spend too much effort to refute market pricing, although it is widely expected that the first rate hike may happen next year.

The forecast for the end of the inflation forecast cycle will slightly exceed the central bank's target (2%); the inflation target of the Bank of England may be 3 years, and the target of last year will be slightly more than 2%.

As the Federal Reserve has an open interest rate increase in December, for the Bank of England, what they need to do is to pass on to the market the expectation of raising interest rates in the first half of 2016.

The following are the expectations of major investment banks for the outcome of this week's meeting of the Bank of England.

Goldman Sachs: it is expected that a member of the monetary policy committee of the Bank of England will vote for raising interest rates; it may raise interest rates in the two quarter of next year; it is expected that the Bank of England will hint that the sterling interest rate contract curve is too flat, and they may raise interest rates based on the expectation of inflation higher than 2% in three years; if Carney said that the central bank policy committee would need to be vigilant against the economic downturn.

Without becoming a reality, the position of the Bank of England may become doves.

Barclays: it is expected that a member of the monetary policy committee of the Bank of England will vote for raising interest rates. In September 21st, we predicted that the Bank of England would raise interest rates in the first quarter of next year. Now it is thought that interest rates may increase in the two quarter of next year. If the Bank of England Monetary committee thinks that the market price is too conservative, they may adjust their inflation expectations and raise the probability of inflation over 2% in the next two or three years to 50% or more. The focus of the attention of the Central Bank Committee on GDP and potential inflation in the third quarter and the short-term rising unemployment rate will put downward pressure on wage growth.

Morgan Stanley: either the committee member Kristin Forbes will join the Ian McCafferty camp to support the increase in interest rates or Martin Weale; the rate hike will be next February or May next year; the Bank of England may predict that the biennium and three year inflation will be significantly higher than 2%, which will release a clear signal: the Bank of England Committee expects to raise interest rates before the first quarter of 2017, along with the decision of monetary policy unchanged.

The report is worth seeing, because any downside risk will indicate that the Bank of England committee thinks it is more appropriate to raise interest rates in the two quarter of next year.

JP Morgan: the percentage of votes raised by the Bank of England Monetary committee will be 8:1. If there are two members, it will not be surprising. The rate of increase will be the two quarter of next year. Inflation reports may show hawkish positions. The price of inflation in the market is more than 2% in 2018. Carney warned that interest rates may need to start slowly adjusting.

The Bank of England may also fix its expectations of your growth and economic growth, and says it is not eager to raise interest rates.

Nomura: members of the committee are expected to raise interest rates to vote at 8:1. In October 5th, we expect the first time to raise interest rates in February next year, now estimated to be May next year. As the Federal Reserve approaches the rate hike, the Bank of England's monetary Council may use the British economic recovery better than the us to imply that interest rate hikes may come sooner.

Previous experience has shown that the hawkish stance in the inflation report has not been effective: only one expected forward interest rate for 12 months is expected to be higher in Carney's nine inflation report.

Scotiabank, Canada: it is expected that the voting percentage will be 7:2; the rate hike will be February next year; the Bank of England may raise its inflation expectations.

The market underestimated some hawkish signals.

Even if Thursday's report does not provide a clue to raise interest rates in February next year, the first rate hike may still take place in the first half of next year, rather than the year after the market price fixing.