PTA: Contradiction Between Supply Exceeding Demand

Judging from the trend of PTA market from 2011 to 2014, every year after the Spring Festival, PTA has a very obvious decline, big or small, and the cumulative fall time is long or short. However, during the period from 3 to May, the trend was always inconsistent with the trend of crude oil and even deviated from each other. This phenomenon is behind the influence of PTA's supply and demand.

We can not simply attribute the decline of PTA after the Spring Festival to the poor downstream demand. Statistics show that the output of chemical fiber and polyester chips has increased steadily in recent years, and the demand for PTA is also increasing. The root cause of the imbalance between supply and demand of PTA lies in the fact that the expansion rate of production capacity is higher than the growth rate of demand. In addition, several months before the Spring Festival, exports are more concentrated, and export demand has slowed down after the Spring Festival. Productivity growth is higher than demand growth and seasonal downstream. demand The overlapping of light and light makes the seasonal trend of PTA more obvious.

By the end of 2014, domestic PTA production capacity was about 43 million 350 thousand tons. In 2015, the domestic PTA production capacity was estimated at 6 million 650 thousand tons, the total capacity reached 50 million tons, and the capacity growth rate of PTA was still as high as 15.3%. By the end of 2014, the total domestic production capacity of polyester was about 46 million tons. In 2015, the domestic polyester production capacity was estimated to be 3 million 750 thousand tons to 49 million 750 thousand tons, and the domestic polyester production capacity growth rate was only 8.1%.

According to 1 tons polyester It needs 0.86 tons of consumption. PTA Calculated, this year's domestic production capacity of 3 million 750 thousand tons of polyester, only need to increase 3 million 225 thousand tons of PTA new capacity. Of this year's 6 million 650 thousand tons of new PTA capacity, two units were put into operation in the first quarter, and the total output of the two units was 3 million 450 thousand tons. That is to say, in the first quarter, we can meet the PTA capacity needed to increase polyester production this year. It is reported that Hengli Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons of new PTA device has been put into production, the BP125 PTA device at the end of March commissioning commissioning.

On the basis of last year's PTA production capacity larger than that of polyester production capacity, the new PTA production capacity this year is higher than that of PTA due to the increase of polyester production capacity, and the contradiction between oversupply and demand has been highlighted in the first quarter. Despite the slow development of China's PX's new capacity and high dependence on foreign trade, Asia has become the fastest growing region of PX production in the past two years. In 2014, the new PX capacity in Asia reached about 6 million 560 thousand tons. It is estimated that the new capacity of Asia's PX will be around 4 million 100 thousand tons this year, of which domestic PX's new capacity will be estimated at 2 million 250 thousand tons. With the growth of PX's new capacity, the overall supply of PX will gradually become more relaxed.