Cotton Price Quotation In Cotton Futures Market In September 16, 2013

  [Hongyuan futures] USDA report can't change the pattern of Chinese cotton

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20918 yuan / ton; 229 level 20054 yuan / ton; 328 level 19193 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18583 yuan / ton. domestic Spin Product: polyester staple fiber 10245 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 13300 yuan / ton; C32S price 25840 yuan / ton.

2. production area dynamics: Recently, some cotton regions in Hebei, Shandong and Henan began picking cotton seeds, but the quality of seed cotton harvested at present is quite different. With the progress of picking cotton seed, most cotton enterprises say the acquisition will start in mid 9. At present, the details of storage and purchase have not been announced. Cotton farmers, cotton enterprises and spinning enterprises have different mentality.

3. growth survey: the national cotton market monitoring system launched an investigation on the growth of cotton throughout the country in mid and late 8. Samples were taken from 15 provinces (autonomous regions), 90 cotton planting counties (cities, farms), and 4493 designated cotton planting information households. According to the survey results, as of the end of August, the agrometeorological disasters in China were widespread, and some areas were moderately biased, which had a great impact on cotton production. The average cotton yield and total output were estimated to be lower than the previous year.

4.USDA: according to the September global cotton supply and demand forecast released by the US Department of agriculture (USDA) on the evening of 12, the total output of cotton in the year of 2013/14 is 25 million 566 thousand tons, 226 thousand tons higher than the August forecast, 23 million 847 thousand tons of consumption, 71 thousand tons reduced, 20 million 625 thousand tons at the end of the year, and 210 thousand tons increased. It is estimated that the world's cotton output will reach 26 million 353 thousand tons in 2012/13, 23 million 356 thousand tons of consumption and 18 million 733 thousand tons at the end of the year. China's cotton output in the 2013/14 year was 7 million 185 thousand tons, 7 million 838 thousand tons of consumption and 2 million 395 thousand tons of imports, unchanged from last month, and 12 million 696 thousand tons at the end of the year, increasing by 12 thousand tons. The US cotton production in 2013/14 decreased by 34 thousand tons to 2 million 808 thousand tons in August compared with that in the year of August, and the export volume was reduced by 44 thousand tons to 2 million 264 thousand tons; the end of the stock was increased by 21 thousand tons to 631 thousand tons. India's cotton production increased by 218 thousand tons to 6 million 314 thousand tons in 2013/14, and 54 thousand tons to 5 million 8 thousand tons of consumption, and 163 thousand tons of export volume to 1 million 524 thousand tons.

5. India cotton: according to the news of foreign power in September 12th, India's cabinet Economic Affairs Committee (CCEA) will consider submitting a proposal to levy 10% export tariffs on India cotton to the Ministry of textiles to ensure domestic cotton supply. At present, this proposal has been listed on the agenda of the Ministry of textiles of India, and will be discussed at the 13 meeting.

6. cotton inventory: according to the sampling survey of the national cotton market monitoring system, as of September 6th, the average daily use of cotton in the sample survey enterprises was about 42.4 days (including the quantity of cotton imported to Hong Kong), an increase of 1.6 days, an increase of 5.7 days compared with that of the previous three years, an increase of 7.8 days compared with the average level of nearly three years. According to relevant data projections, the national cotton industry inventory of about 904 thousand tons, an increase of 3.8%, an increase of 12.5% over the same period, an increase of 3.4% over the past three years. The cotton industry stock situation of the main provinces in the country is different, and the cotton industry inventory in Anhui, Fujian, Hunan and Jiangsu is relatively large.

7. ICE cotton:: in September 13th, the US retail data were not as good as expected and the decline in the grain market had an adverse effect on ICE cotton. The overall trend of cotton prices was weak, and the lack of funds intervened to limit the decline in cotton prices.

Summary:

The cotton purchase and storage transaction in 2013 was carried out in September 10, 2013 through the national cotton trading market storage and storage system, and the trading rules were implemented in accordance with the 2013 cotton temporary purchase and storage transaction method. Its impact has been reflected in the previous few days, and the impact on the disk will not be great after the release. The pattern determines the outcome. In the long run, policy will not change. There will be no essential change in the cotton market structure. There will be no big market for CF1401 contracts. The USDA report has little impact on Zheng cotton because the report can not affect the cotton pattern in China.

[Wanda futures] cotton early comment

The US retail sales growth in August was slower than expected, and the market was worried about the economic dynamics and the US economy. clothing Demand for consumer goods was sluggish, while international commodity prices fell on Friday. USDA increased India's output by 218 thousand tons to 6 million 314 thousand tons, and the global end of the year increased 210 thousand tons to 20 million 625 thousand tons. Multiple factors led to the decline of ICE cotton on Friday, while the December contract fell 0.29 cents to 84.46 cents / pound, but the rebound trend has not changed. Although China has no limit on the purchase and storage of 20400 yuan / ton, the output of US cotton has been reduced by 962 thousand tons to 2 million 808 thousand tons over the previous year. But the market expects that China will sell the goods at a low price before the end of the year.

On Friday, ICE cotton fell sharply, the main contract closed in December, but it still stabilized above the short-term average line; although the EMA system kept a drop in the alignment, the short-term average line had a U-turn upward trend, while KD and MACD indicators formed a multi gold fork arrangement. MACD index red column began to grow, cotton prices strengthened, the rebound will continue, and December target is expected to reach 87 cents / pound.

China's new cotton market is sporadic, and the 20400 yuan / ton open policy will not be limited. The purchase and storage will be more stringent on quality requirements. Some cotton may not be able to meet the storage standards. At the same time, the purchase and storage will enforce the time limited policy, and the whole storage cycle will continue. This will weaken the 1401 contract's anticipation. On the other hand, in the future, the Chinese government may reduce the pressure on capital and storage capacity and lower the reserve price. In 2014, the current reserve policy will be terminated. At present, domestic commercial stocks are adequate. Enterprises are not optimistic about the future cotton prices, and consumer buying is in the doldrums. Spot cotton prices will remain weak, and the long-term agreement will be kept short. The rally will continue to increase 1405 contracts, and short-term targets will be 18300 yuan / ton. The 1409 contract will be listed on Monday. If the price difference of the 1405-1409 contract is less than 500 yuan / ton, it can buy 1405 to sell 1409 contract arbitrage, with a target of 1000 yuan / ton.

[a German futures] rare transactions, Zheng cotton arbitrage opportunities exist

Friday's CF1405 sideways turbulence, CF1405 closed 3788 hands, a slight decrease in positions. CF1405 closed at 18705 yuan / ton, down 25 yuan / ton, reduced 1170 hands; in September 13th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 97.27 cents / pound, up 0.27 cents, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 15295 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 15967 yuan / ton.

According to New York's September 13th news, the ICE cotton futures fell on Friday, falling in the commodity market, as well as weak retail sales in the US. However, the cotton futures rose this week for the first time in a four week period, and the demand reignited after the price fell to three months low. The ICE12 contract fell 0.29 cents, or 0.3%, at 84.46 cents a pound.

In September 13th, the cotton trade in the national cotton trading market was 21580 tons, a decrease of 2200 tons compared with the previous trading day. The order quantity increased by 700 tons, and the total order was 13880 tons. Domestic market: 12, the US USDA released the supply and demand report in September. From the data point of view, it is mainly to increase India's per unit output and reduce the US yield. In the near future, there is a general turnover of cotton outside the port, and the quota price still has a slight downward trend, and enquiries are relatively good.

On Friday, Zheng cotton CF1405 side plate concussion, receipt and storage rules announced that the quality of low-grade lint can not be imported into storage, then a large number of registered warehouse receipts will be generated outside the storage. According to the Cotton Association statistics, this part of lint is about 30%, so the 1401 and 1405 contracts are facing the same fundamentals, but the price difference has reached 1000 yuan / ton. At present, the best operation strategy is empty more than 1401 1405, and the price difference is expected to be significantly reduced. It is suggested that investors can intervene in empty more than 1401 1405 arbitrage at present price, and the reference price range of CF1405 is 18600-18900.

[MEIKO futures] wait for the new standard under the pressure of cotton under the spot circulation period.

In the overnight market, the US retail data were not as good as expected and the decline in the grain market had an adverse effect on the ICE cotton. The overall trend of cotton prices was weak, and the lack of funds intervened to limit the decline in cotton prices. After the USDA supply and demand report is released, the fundamentals of the market will not change much in the short term. Investors will wait and see to wait for new news.

Cotton Market: 1 and 13, the price of China's main cotton imports rose slightly, of which West African cotton and India cotton rose 0.4 cents, while cotton, cotton and Brazil cotton rose 0.5 cents. Although the USDA supply and demand report has increased global cotton output and final inventory, last week, US cotton exports were more stable to provide support for the market. However, in view of the current situation, China's policy of purchasing and storage is tighter and tighter, and the market still takes a wait-and-see attitude towards the scale of purchasing and storage. The quantity of foreign cotton purchases is also difficult to enlarge, and the spot market will not be much improved in the near future. 2, domestic cotton prices are running smoothly. The 400 type of cotton ginning mill in our country started to weigh in a small way, and the mood of wait-and-see was heavier. Most of them said they were not eager to expand the purchase volume.

Spot quotation, US C/A cotton 97.10 (cents / pound), port delivery price 15892 yuan / ton (calculated by sliding tax); Uzbekistan cotton 101.16, port delivery price 16375 yuan / ton; India cotton 90.96, port delivery price 15199 yuan / ton; CNCotton A 20130 yuan / ton; CNCottonB 19277.

Market analysis, pay attention to " cotton The progress and dynamics of purchasing and storage under the new standard will have a great impact on the price of cotton both inside and outside the market. Mei cotton is concerned about buying support near 80; pressure 01 zhengmian 19800, 05 contract 19000.

Operation, pressure cf01 19800; cf05 19000, more short on the short line.