Kant Latif's Cycle Theory

This article will briefly discuss the basic content of Kant Latif's long term economic cycle theory and its possible economic significance for commodity prices, new year or the next few years.

Nicola Condellatif (1892-1938) is a Russian economist who believes that the interaction of events that occur in the future will produce repeated patterns in the long run. He believes that public reaction will directly affect the ups and downs of economic development, so it plays a very important role in economic development. He believes that the public reaction presents a wave like change. Measuring this change and its impact on the future economy constitutes his theoretical basis.

Kant Latif put forward economic cycle It is repeated every 54 years. That is to say, the "long wave" alternates from prosperity to recession, which is made up of many short waves. This creates a living economic cycle that can be expected.

Kant Latif not only accurately predicted the great depression in 1930s, but also predicted 20s. equity market The great prosperity. He received much attention in the early 1930s.

Just like Ralph Nelson Elliot's "Eliot wave theory", Kant Latif discovered the long-term rules of economic behavior through the study of economic, social and cultural life. The research cycle can be used to predict future economic development.

Kant Latif took 50 years as a cycle to enumerate the years of expansion and contraction of the middle economy in the half century. During these cycles, industry suffered great impact in the downward trend of the cycle. Then, under the impetus of technological innovation, the economy rose from contraction to the next wave.

According to most of those who have comprehensively studied this long term economic cycle theory, after the global economy was released from the Great Depression of 1930s, the most recent revolution of Kant Latif's wave theory began. After World War I, prices accelerated and then prices collapsed in 1980. Since then, and then 1990-1991 years of economic recession, the global economy has once again experienced a "second peak." In this process, consumers and investors realize that inflation has not accelerated, and that the elimination of inflation is expected. Securities such as stock and treasury bond markets are healthier, as inflation and deflation have no impact on the market. But in the second economic peak, the first signal of economic problems is also obvious.

Independent economic entity Plunged into economic contraction, and gold prices began to fall. In 1990s, the Japanese economy first slid into deflation. This year's decline in stocks also shows that the economic growth period is coming to an end with the second economic peaks.

In the book Eliot wave theory written by Frost and Puri Cheel (the book is of great reference value), the author points out: "Kant Latif proposed the" bottom Valley war "- the bottom of the war approaching the cycle. With the stimulus of the war economy, prices rebounded, and the economy benefited, eventually leading to a rebound in the economy and rising commodity prices. Many people who study Kant Latif's theory of economic cycle point out that the world economy is now close to "bottom Valley". The ongoing war against terrorists can be seen as building a "bottom Valley" war.

Through studying the long term business cycle theory and short term cycle research, I think it is very beneficial. But I will not rush into the commodity market immediately, and build up all the bulls. Remember, time is the key to futures trading. Long term cycle theory is of great reference value for macro analysis of market trend. But because the long-term perspective is too ambitious, short-term investment is not appropriate in time.

But Kant Latif's wave theory is a comprehensive study of other projects and cycles. It represents low inflation, and commodity prices are generally at a low ebb (as shown in the current CRB index). In fact, commodity prices and inflation prospects may be at a critical time.