3.6 Zheng Cotton: India'S Cotton Policy Is Changeable &Nbsp; Cotton Price Short Term Rally Is Difficult To Continue.
Contract code
Opening price
Highest price
Minimum price
Closing price
Pre settlement price
Settlement price
Ups and downs
volume
open interest
today
Cumulative
Today's change
Cumulative
CF203
Twenty thousand six hundred and fifty
Twenty thousand and seven hundred
Twenty thousand five hundred and sixty
Twenty thousand six hundred and thirty
Twenty thousand six hundred and ten
Twenty thousand and six hundred
-10
Two hundred and fifty-six
Two hundred and four thousand two hundred and forty-eight
-194
Five thousand and eighty-four
CF205
Twenty-one thousand three hundred and twenty
Twenty-one thousand three hundred and sixty-five
Twenty-one thousand one hundred and thirty
Twenty-one thousand two hundred and fifteen
Twenty-one thousand and two hundred
Twenty-one thousand two hundred and seventy
+70
Twenty-six thousand five hundred and forty-four
Thirty-one million two hundred and forty-two thousand two hundred and seventy-two
Three hundred and forty
One hundred and one thousand three hundred and seventy-two
CF207
Twenty-one thousand six hundred and sixty
Twenty-one thousand six hundred and eighty
Twenty-one thousand four hundred and thirty
Twenty-one thousand five hundred and five
Twenty-one thousand four hundred and eighty-five
Twenty-one thousand five hundred and ninety
+105
One thousand eight hundred and forty
One hundred and ninety-one thousand eight hundred and fifty-four
-9538
0098
CF209
Twenty-two thousand one hundred and twenty
Twenty-two thousand one hundred and sixty
Twenty-one thousand eight hundred and eighty-five
Twenty-one thousand nine hundred and eighty
Twenty-one thousand nine hundred and forty
Twenty-two thousand and thirty-five
+95
Three hundred and twenty-eight thousand two hundred and ten
Four million four hundred and three thousand nine hundred and fifty-six
Twenty-one thousand and seventy-eight
Three hundred and twenty-nine thousand five hundred and fifty
CF211
Two thousand one hundred and ninety
Twenty-two thousand and ten
Twenty-one thousand seven hundred and fifty-five
Twenty-one thousand eight hundred and ninety
Twenty-one thousand eight hundred and fifteen
Twenty-one thousand nine hundred and twenty
+105
Four hundred and twenty-two
Seventeen thousand three hundred and twelve
-6
Three thousand two hundred and forty-four
CF301
Twenty-two thousand one hundred and twenty
Twenty-two thousand one hundred and eighty
Twenty-one thousand eight hundred and ninety-five
Twenty-one thousand nine hundred and seventy
Twenty-one thousand nine hundred and eighty-five
Twenty-two thousand and thirty-five
+50
Ten thousand seven hundred and forty-eight
One hundred and eighteen thousand four hundred and thirty-two
Three thousand seven hundred and ninety-eight
Thirty-five thousand and fifty-six
Total turnover: 368020, total positions: 474404, today's holdings: 15478
Note: 1 turnover volume: hand (by bilateral calculation); 2 Rise and fall: the difference between the current settlement price and the previous settlement price; and 3 turnover: the sum of the turnover volume and the current turnover volume.
On the 6 day, Zheng cotton went up and down and fell slightly.
Today's cotton price is affected by the early profit taking and the impact of India or the abolition of the export ban. India's cotton policy is easy to change. The market has long expected this. Today's agriculture minister's view makes the market worry again, and the driving force of short term cotton prices continues to rise.
ICE cotton futures closed on Monday, subject to India accident
prohibit
The export of cotton has been boosted. This has led to speculation that China will have to turn to the United States to reduce the supply of cotton, which reminds us of a two fold increase in cotton prices in August 2010 and finally hit a 2.27 dollar high in March 2011. Index ICE-5 cotton futures contract CTK2 touched 4 cents limit and closed at 92.23 cents per pound, up 4.5%. According to Thomson Reuters data, the single day increase was the biggest in a month.
On the news side, in March 5th, the General Administration of foreign trade of India announced that it would prohibit the export of cotton products with tax numbers of 5201 and 5203, including export orders registered with its government. The date of release is separately stipulated. According to India customers, the cotton ready to ship at the port on 5 may have been unable to declare.
It is reported that from September 2011 to January 2012, China imported 810 thousand tons of cotton in India, accounting for 40% of total imports, accounting for second of Australia's share of 16%.
The data of China's import of India cotton in February have not yet been released, and it is expected to be 200 thousand tons. So China has imported 1 million tons of India cotton in 2011 cotton year. At present, there are 400 thousand tons of India cotton import mission. Today, India's minister of agriculture proposes to cancel the export embargo, and the market is worried again.
Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council, made the five meeting of the eleven National People's Congress on 5 th.
government
According to the work report, GDP grew by 7.5% in 2012.
This is China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for the first time in eight years, less than 8%.
At the same time, it pointed out that "China will continue to raise the minimum grain purchase price."
In 2012, the minimum purchase price of wheat and rice increased by an average of 7.4 yuan and 16 yuan per 50 kilograms respectively.
According to the cotton information network survey, the average operating rate of the current cotton mill is 89.4%, which is generally lower than last year's level. At present, the high cost raw materials in the early stage of the enterprise have been digested and started well, and there is a certain profit in accordance with the current cotton price.
In the domestic spot market, in March 6th, the cotton trading market of the national cotton trading market reached 14380 tons, an increase of 4580 tons from the previous day, an increase of 2520 tons of orders, and an aggregate purchase of 108020 tons.
In March 6th, China's cotton price index fell by 2 yuan to 19597 yuan / ton.
Last week, the new deal came out in 2012. Cotton growers and cotton growers all supported this positive view. There are some differences in the view of textile enterprises. Some enterprises think that high cotton prices mean high yarn prices.
Cotton price
The increase in cotton prices will stimulate the price of cotton yarn. In addition, according to the recent survey of cotton business strategy, many cotton traders are in a state of anxiety and anxiety. They are afraid to do nothing and fear too much.
In view of the increase in the purchase and storage price of the new cotton, the market will not dare to empty the market, but the cotton yarn market is still not improving. In the half year of this year, there is a high risk of being blind.
In March 5th, we planned to close and store 96550 tons, with a turnover of 19760 tons, with a turnover ratio of 20%.
By the end of 5, 2011 tons of cotton temporary storage and storage totaled 2731830 tons in, and 1560480 tons in total.
Technically, today's Zheng cotton 1209 contract has taken the small Yin line, and the period price has been supported at the 5 day moving average. The 5 day moving average and the 20 day average line have been glued up, the positions have continued to increase, the turnover has decreased slightly, and the short-term impulse power has not been strong.
Recently, the abrupt change of cotton export policy in India has made the bull market position increase obviously. However, India's abolition of cotton exports will not change the pattern of loose supply and weak demand for cotton in the world. Cotton prices will not change immediately, but only short-term stimulation of cotton prices. The cotton price in the middle term will return to the fundamentals of supply and demand.
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