PTA Confrontation In The Air

After the Spring Festival, the PTA futures dropped sharply. Last week, they maintained weak shocks. This week there has been a slight rebound. The interpretation of the market after the festival can basically be interpreted as a fundamental confrontation.

On the one hand, in the expectation of cost factors and peak season, the PTA valuation has been improved compared with the low level before the festival. Valuing repair has become the internal driving force to promote the PTA rally; on the other hand, due to the earlier spring festival this year, the late orders after the festival have not been followed up, and the hidden worries of insufficient demand make the adjustment of PTA valuation adjustment inevitable.

So, what will follow the trend of PTA? I think PTA market is obviously entangled, but it will still move forward.

The cost is high and the valuation is not yet in place.

Recent crude oil and upstream petrochemical products have shown strong overall performance.

Although crude oil prices have been reversed this week, crude oil prices will remain high and volatile under the influence of geopolitical factors such as Iran and Syria.

According to Brent crude oil 120 US dollars / barrel estimate, PTA relative to crude oil valuation at 9600 yuan / ton above, and current price.

From the angle of parylene (PX), its supply and demand are tight, supporting PX keeps rising.

The price of Korean PX rose to $1648 / ton on Monday, supporting the cost of PTA to 9300 yuan / ton, which is significantly higher than the current price.

In March, the PX contract price of Asian mainstream factories was priced at US $1690 / ton -1740 US dollars / ton, higher than the February settlement price of US $1590 / ton.

PX's strong price is expected to continue, and cost support for PTA will be maintained.

In the case of small profits, a strong PTA factory lacks the power to take the initiative to reduce prices. In order to maintain profits, enterprises will increase their production and price guarantee activities. Some factory maintenance plans in March also reflected this.

After the end of the textile industry, raw materials procurement has been weak, and the stock of polyester factories has been increasing, which has pushed up the market's concern about the weak demand for PTA.

However, there are three main reasons for the slow down of downstream demand: first, the Spring Festival earlier this year, and the terminal orders have not yet been followed up.

According to past experience, export orders increased significantly since March. Two, pre holiday enterprises have already prepared materials, and basically consumed raw materials after consumption. The three is that polyester enterprises started during the Spring Festival and accumulated a certain amount of product inventory. The terminal textile enterprises expect to profit from the de stocking process of polyester enterprises, so purchasing enthusiasm is not high at the moment when the order is not launched in a large scale.

The above three points are short-term factors, which are not sufficient for the long and medium term needs of the lower reaches of the capital.

At present, the starting rate of textile enterprises has been restored. Compared with previous years, the level of operating rate has been on the normal level.

Considering the new installations, the absolute load level of terminal enterprises is actually not low.

The author believes that the downstream demand should not be too pessimistic. With the inventory digestion and the gradual increase of orders, a new round of preparation is needed under the support of rigid demand.

Although the economic growth rate in 2012 is generally expected to decline, the overall macro level of the festival is still improving.

In the external market, the overall preferences of the US macroeconomic data, the real estate market and the employment market all showed positive signs, indicating that the economic recovery process was good.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy continued to maintain.

The European debt crisis has eased somewhat, and the suppressed market sentiment has been released.

At home, the government's argument about the "fine tuning of the economy" has also been increased to a certain extent.

Based on the above aspects, I believe that although the recent PTA market performance is hesitant, it will not have the conditions for a sharp decline in the future, but on the contrary, it contains some potential factors to support the upward trend of the price.

It is suggested that investors should have more than one long line layout, pay attention to the downstream demand follow-up, and pay attention to the shift of the main contract in operation.