Data Analysis Of Cotton Futures In National Cotton Market Monitoring System

As of March 10, 2025, in the cotton year of 2024, there were 1094 cotton processing enterprises processing cotton and conducting notarial inspection in accordance with the requirements of the reform plan of cotton quality inspection system. 29705605 bales of cotton were inspected nationwide, totaling 6707900 tons, an increase of 7300 tons over the previous day, or 18.4% over the same period last year, including 29211455 bales of Xinjiang, totaling 6.597 million tons, 7000 tons more than the previous day; The inspection volume in the mainland was 328555 bales, a total of 73400 tons.

According to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, on March 10, 2025, there will be 10420 (+50) cotton warehouse receipts, including 7939 (+135) registered warehouse receipts and 2481 (- 85) effective forecasts.

Zheng Mian is lack of upward drive, and is expected to continue to fluctuate when the market is not started for the time being. Pay attention to whether the downstream and order conditions are improved. On the whole, it is expected that Zheng Mian will be shocked in the short term, and the domestic policy and consumption peak season will be followed.

According to the survey data of 900 farmers in 45 counties and cities in 13 provinces and autonomous regions by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of March 5, 2025, the picking progress of new cotton nationwide will be 100%, which is flat year-on-year and the average over the past four years; The national sales rate was 99.9%, up 0.1 percentage point year on year and 0.2 percentage point higher than the average of the past four years.

According to the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2025, China's export of textiles and clothing reached US $42.884 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.54%, including US $21.221 billion of textile yarn, fabric and products, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and US $21.664 billion of clothing and clothing accessories, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%.

According to the CFTC, as of the week of March 4, there were 70011 (- 2663) long positions in CFTC Meimian's non-commercial futures only position fund, with 132148 (+15988) short positions, increasing for the second week in a row, and 280617 (+11916) total positions in ICE, with a net excess ratio of - 22.1%, a month on month decrease of 6 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 59.4 percentage points.

Economists at JPMorgan Chase raised the risk of economic recession in the United States this year from 30% at the beginning of 2025 to 40%. Analysts wrote: "Due to the extreme policies of the United States, we believe that the United States faces a great risk of recession this year." It was reported that Morgan Stanley economists last week lowered their expectations for U.S. economic growth and raised their inflation expectations. The bank predicted that the GDP growth rate of the United States would be only 1.5% in 2025, and would decline to 1.2% in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists also raised the probability of 12 month economic recession from 15% to 20%