National Bureau Of Statistics: China'S Purchasing Managers Index Remained In The Expansion Range In April

On April 30, 2021, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing manager index. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe has carried on the interpretation.

In April, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 51.1%, 54.9% and 53.8%, respectively, down 0.8%, 1.4 and 1.5 percentage points compared with the previous month, and they were still in the expansion range, and China's economic operation continued to recover steadily.

I. continuous expansion of purchasing manager index in manufacturing industry

In April, the purchasing manager index of the manufacturing industry continued to expand on the basis of the obvious rebound of last month, and the strength was weakened, which was still higher than the level of the same period in 2019 and 2020, and the manufacturing industry maintained a stable growth. Main features of the month:

First, the expansion of production and demand has slowed down. The production index and new order index were 52.2% and 52.0%, respectively, lower than 1.7% and 1.6% of the previous month, indicating that production and demand continued to grow, but the growth rate was lower than that of last month. From the perspective of industry situation, the production index and new order index of agricultural and sideline food processing, wood processing and furniture, computer communication electronic equipment and instrumentation industries were higher than that of last month, and were in a relatively high boom range, indicating that the market demand of the above industries continued to release, and the production and operation activities of enterprises were further accelerated.

Second, the import and export index remained in the expansion range. The new export order index and import index were 50.4% and 50.6%, respectively, lower than 0.8% and 0.5% of the previous month. They were in the expansion range for two consecutive months, reflecting the continued growth of foreign trade business in the manufacturing industry.

Third, the price index runs at a high level. The purchasing price index and ex factory price index of the main raw materials were 66.9% and 57.3%, respectively, which were 2.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month and still at a high level in recent years. From the perspective of the industry, the two price indexes of raw material industries, such as ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, are all higher than 70.0%. Among them, the ex factory price index of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry is higher than 85.0% for two consecutive months, indicating that the cost pressure of related industries continues to transmit to the downstream.

Fourth, the prosperity of small enterprises has picked up. This month, the PMI of enterprises of different sizes remained in the boom range. The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises were 51.7% and 50.3%, respectively, lower than 1.0% and 1.3% of the previous month; The PMI of small enterprises was 50.8%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The production index and new order index both rebounded for two consecutive months, indicating that the production and operation situation of small enterprises has improved in the near future.

Fifth, enterprise confidence is generally stable. The expected index of production and operation activities was 58.3%, lower than 0.2% of the previous month, but it continued to be in a relatively high boom range, and was significantly higher than the level of the same period in recent two years. From the perspective of industry situation, the expected index of production and operation activities of agricultural and sideline food processing, wood processing and furniture, special equipment, electrical machinery and equipment and other industries are all higher than 60.0%, and enterprises in relevant industries are optimistic about the recent market development.

At the same time, some survey enterprises reflect that the shortage of chips, poor international logistics, container shortage, rising freight rates and other problems are still serious. The distribution time index of high-tech manufacturing suppliers was lower than 44.0% for three consecutive months. The purchasing cycle of raw materials continued to extend, and normal production activities were affected.

2. The index of non manufacturing business activities is stable and slow

In April, the non manufacturing business activity index was 54.9%, lower than 1.4% of the previous month. The non manufacturing industry continued to expand rapidly, but the pace slowed down.

The service industry has maintained a steady recovery. Driven by the Qingming holiday and the continuous improvement of epidemic prevention and control situation, the service industry consumption market has further recovered in the near future. This month, the business activity index of the service industry was 54.4%, lower than 0.8% of the previous month, but higher than the average of 2.0% in the first quarter, reflecting the stable and good momentum of the recovery growth of the service industry. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the business activity index of 19 industries is in the boom range, among which the railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation and other industries are higher than 65.0%, and the total business volume maintains rapid growth. At the same time, the recovery of some industries which were greatly restricted by the epidemic situation in the early stage was significantly accelerated. The business activity indexes of accommodation, catering, ecological protection and environmental management, culture, sports and entertainment industries were at least 1.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, indicating that the residents' willingness to consume has increased significantly and the market activity has increased.

The outlook of the construction industry has come back. The business activity index of the construction industry was 57.4%, which was 4.9 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, and it was still in a relatively high boom zone. The construction industry continued to maintain a rapid growth. From the perspective of market expectation, the expected index of business activities is 64.8%, which has been in the high prosperity range for three consecutive months, and the confidence of construction enterprises is stable.

3. The comprehensive PMI output index fell

In April, the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.8%, lower than 1.5% of the previous month, indicating that the overall progress of production and operation activities of China's enterprises has slowed down. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index which constitute the composite PMI output index are 52.2% and 54.9% respectively.