The Turning Point Of Foreign Trade Is Approaching.

In recent days, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has risen continuously, reaching a record high in 27 days.

In the past more than a month, the spot price of RMB against the US dollar has become lower than the middle price, and has even appeared for several consecutive days.

"Touch bottom" not long ago, began to "touch high", which allowed China's foreign trade exports.

Exchange rate changes intensified

Foreign trade export enterprises should face difficulties

However, this is precisely this.

Professor Xiao Yaofei, who has long studied the relationship between international finance and China's foreign trade and export, said that the previous stage of "lower renminbi" is indeed beneficial to export enterprises. "But for some foreign trade enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises who want to gain profits and share double earnings, I am afraid that such fluctuations have brought about great losses.

In the future, the foreign trade enterprises also want to try to gain profits from foreign exchange speculation.

In fact, even if they do not engage in foreign exchange investment, most foreign trade enterprises have felt that they need to readjust to the new stage of the RMB exchange rate which is "small and large."

Wang Donglei, chairman of Guangdong de Hao run Da electric Limited by Share Ltd, said that the aggravation of the amplitude directly affected the bargaining power of Chinese enterprises. "In the case of more obvious expectations of one-way appreciation, we have difficulty in negotiating prices with large purchases such as WAL-MART and Carrefour. Now that the amplitude is increasing, the other side is more reluctant to admit our expectation of appreciation, and the difficulty of negotiation will only increase."

The characteristics of two-way volatility are more obvious, which makes many foreign trade enterprises feel that the difficulty of using financial instruments to avoid risks is further increased.

Xu Feng, director of the International Business Department of Zhuhai Hansheng Polytron Technologies Inc, said that Hansheng technology, for example, has been used to avoid exchange rate risks, such as export credit insurance, forward selling and foreign exchange, etc. but in general, "at present, banks have very few tools, and some of them are too complicated to avoid product design. We are usually afraid to use them, let alone foreign currency fluctuations make people feel at a loss, and they dare not use them."

"For the magnitude of exchange rate fluctuations, we hope that half a year will not exceed 3%, and it is gradual, and too many enterprises can not afford it.

Now the foreign customers we are dealing with are most concerned about the exchange rate in China's economy.

GREE electric chief financial officer Wang Jingdong said.

How can China's foreign trade enterprises make profits in the two-way fluctuation era?

China's foreign trade enterprises generally realize that the exchange rate issue involves many factors, and how to adjust itself to cope with the increasingly obvious characteristics of "two-way volatility" is the urgent topic that must be considered in 2012.

Some enterprises have adopted "primitive" means to safeguard their own interests.

Zhang Zhonghan, deputy general manager of Shenzhen Wan run technology director, said that the company has basically recovered to the cash trading stage, "pay first and then deliver the goods", and immediately settle the foreign exchange to avoid losses. "Because enterprises mainly run LED products with high added value, they have relatively strong bargaining power."

But most enterprises still need to rely on financial instruments to avoid risks.

Xiao Yaofei said that from the perspective of enterprise operation, "little increase or amplitude" means that enterprises should continue to increase the application of tools such as hedging and forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange. "Although two-way fluctuations lead to greater difficulty in forecasting, enterprises should be more cautious when using these tools, but it is better to use them than not to use them." this is a basic principle.

At present, GREE electric, Senna technology, de ho run, Hansheng technology and other enterprises have set up full-time posts to judge the trend of the renminbi and avoid risks with various financial instruments. However, enterprises appeal to banks and other financial institutions to provide more and more flexible exchange rate risk aversion tools to adapt to the new situation.

In the view of some foreign businessmen, China's foreign exchange policy and monetary policy should be adjusted appropriately if China's foreign trade enterprises can better adapt to the "two-way fluctuation" era.

"China factor" pushes prices up

It is worth noting that unlike the previous years, the "Chinese factor" pushed up the price of the market. The fluctuation of commodities in 2011 was almost dominated by geopolitical oil prices and debt crisis.

In fact, in the eyes of many people in the industry, with the gradual structural pformation of the Chinese market, the lifting of the "Chinese factor" for commodities may have come to an end, including the growth of demand for commodities such as metals and agricultural products.

Due to the rapid development of China's economy, the "China factor" has always been the theme of the commodity market's "trial and error", including Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and other investment bank's report. It is suggested that the biggest increase will be those with large demand, low self-sufficiency rate and spare capacity, preferred crude oil, copper, iron ore, etc.

Commodity analyst Chen Kexin said that in the face of internal pformation and external debt crisis, China's structure of commodity consumption was obviously adjusted. On the one hand, the growth of domestic demand was significantly higher than that of export demand. On the other hand, the demand for commodities shifted more to inland provinces, especially in less developed areas.

"Since 2008, with the pfer of processing and manufacturing industry, the economic development of inland provinces and cities has obviously increased. This also makes the proportion of consumption in the developed coastal areas continue to decline, while the proportion of consumption in inland provinces has increased."

Chen Kexin thinks.

Zheng Liansheng, a strategist in CITIC investment strategy, also said that China's economy itself is undergoing adjustment, the mode of previous processing trade has shrunk, exports have decreased, and the consumption of commodities has shifted inland, and on the other hand, it has paid more attention to the local market.

"In fact, the international market has exaggerated the" China factor "in the past, and commodities are still subject to greater global demand.

Zheng Liansheng pointed out.

Fei Zhonghai, deputy general manager of COFCO cereals and oils, believes that the increase in demand for bulk commodities may be at a "major turning point".

"In the past time, our demand for basic commodities has maintained rapid growth, and the future increment and growth rate will enter a downward path. Perhaps after the peak period, China's total demand for commodities will also fall into a downward path."

Fei Zhonghai said.

According to the data provided by COFCO cereals and oils, the domestic consumption of edible oil has reached 18 kilograms to 19 kilograms, which is close to the world average level from 22 kg to 23 kg, according to the oil products with an import dependency of 70%.

"Compared with the rapid growth in previous years, the structural change of growth in the next few years will be more obvious."